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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 9.5x - 10.5x | 10.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7.9x - 8.7x | 8.3x |
| Fair Value | 161.71₺ - 200.53₺ | 181.12₺ |
| Upside | -36.4% - -21.1% | -28.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Türk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi | THYAO | IBSE:THYAO |
| American Airlines Group Inc. | AAL | BVL:AAL |
| China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited | 600115 | SHSE:600115 |
| Air China Limited | AICA.F | OTCPK:AICA.F |
| China Southern Airlines Company Limited | CHKI.F | OTCPK:CHKI.F |
| Pegasus Hava Tasimaciligi Anonim Sirketi | PGSUS | IBSE:PGSUS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| THYAO | AAL | 600115 | AICA.F | CHKI.F | PGSUS | ||
| IBSE:THYAO | BVL:AAL | SHSE:600115 | OTCPK:AICA.F | OTCPK:CHKI.F | IBSE:PGSUS | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 73.7% | -2.8% | NM- | NM- | -13.8% | 56.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 80.0% | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.5% | -16.7% | 71.8% | 90.4% | 45.6% | 42.1% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.5% | -12.7% | -20.9% | -17.7% | -6.9% | 3.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 13.5% | 7.7% | -70.2% | -68.3% | 2.4% | 19.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 10.3% | 6.2% | -2.8% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 17.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.3% | 6.2% | -1.6% | -0.6% | 3.2% | 17.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.86x | 0.68x | 1.90x | 1.89x | 1.68x | 2.06x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 6.6x | 28.5x | 24.3x | 18.5x | 11.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.3x | 11.0x | -118.3x | -334.3x | 52.8x | 11.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -334.3x | 8.3x | 52.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -46.8x | 8.4x | 13.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 9.5x | 10.0x | 10.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 19,449 | 19,449 | 19,449 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 184,384 | 194,088 | 203,793 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (103,554) | (103,554) | (103,554) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 80,830 | 90,534 | 100,239 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 500.0 | 500.0 | 500.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 161.66 | 181.07 | 200.48 | ||||
| FX Rate: TRY/TRY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 161.66 | 181.07 | 200.48 | 254.25 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -36.4% | -28.8% | -21.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | THYAO | AAL | 600115 | AICA.F | CHKI.F | PGSUS | |
| Enterprise Value | 639,685 | 37,006 | 244,483 | 339,276 | 309,253 | 230,679 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 214,148 | 7,618 | 6,643 | 21,856 | 18,689 | 57,357 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 61,960 | 515 | 3,688 | 19,870 | 9,975 | 5,397 | |
| (-) Debt | (489,955) | (37,544) | (180,555) | (232,092) | (206,921) | (166,308) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (125) | 0 | (557) | 2,561 | (17,866) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 425,713 | 7,595 | 73,702 | 151,471 | 113,130 | 127,125 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,379.9 | 657.6 | 19,395.2 | 32,009.2 | 30,463.7 | 500.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 308.50 | 11.55 | 3.80 | 4.73 | 3.71 | 254.25 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.26 | 7.26 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 308.50 | 11.55 | 3.80 | 0.65 | 0.51 | 254.25 | |
| Trading Currency | TRY | USD | CNY | USD | USD | TRY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.26 | 7.26 | 1.00 | |