Collating the Earnings Call, News, Analysis, Metrics details - order emerging from chaos!

Nvidia heads into tonight’s earnings with Wall Street expecting a blockbuster: projected revenue of $45.81 billion and EPS of $1.00, both up more than 50% year-over-year. But the real drama isn’t in the headline numbers—it’s in the details behind China, margins, and the AI arms race.

🚩 China: Double-Edged Sword

Why it matters: China accounted for 13% of Nvidia’s revenue last year, but new U.S. export restrictions and Beijing’s push to curb Nvidia chip purchases threaten that stream. Nvidia’s deal to pay 15% of China sales for export licenses is controversial and might not fully protect future revenues. Analysts estimate as much as $6 billion in Q3 could hinge on China—any negative commentary or guidance cut related to the region could hit shares hard.
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🏁 Margins: High Bar, Lower Ceiling?

Why it matters: Gross margins are expected to fall around 4 points to 72.1% as new Blackwell chips roll out and price competition heats up. Watch for commentary on whether this is a temporary dip or a new normal. Analysts are laser-focused on margins because they’ve powered Nvidia’s profit explosion—any sign of sustained compression could cool the AI frenzy.

⚡ Data Center & Blackwell: Still Unstoppable?

Why it matters: Last quarter, data center revenue hit $39 billion (up 73%). Blackwell chips, which fueled $24 billion in Q1 sales, are expected to keep driving growth. Investors will dissect segment performance and updates on product ramp-ups, especially with rivals circling and hyperscalers diversifying suppliers.
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🚀 AI Demand: Boom or Plateau?

Why it matters: The AI boom has powered Nvidia’s 86% trailing 12-month revenue growth, but with AI stocks wobbling this week and skepticism about “AI fatigue” emerging, tonight’s guidance for Q3 (expected $52.96B revenue, up 51% YoY) will be scrutinized for signs of ongoing hypergrowth—or the first whispers of a slowdown.
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🧭 Guidance: The Whole Market Is Watching

Why it matters: Nvidia’s earnings now move the entire S&P 500—JPMorgan says its marginal risk is twice its index weight. A beat on Q2 is expected, but forward guidance, especially around China and AI capex, will set the tone for tech stocks globally.
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🦾 The Wildcards: U.S. Policy, Competition, and Product Cadence

• Policy risk: Ongoing U.S.-China tensions and shifting export rules.
• Competition: AMD, Intel, and AI chip startups are targeting Nvidia’s turf.
• Product cadence: CEO Jensen Huang’s promise of annual chip upgrades means investors will look for clues on what’s next after Blackwell.

This content is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.

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